QUESTIONS & ANSWERS: IRAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM
Iran continues to flaunt the will of the international community as it moves closer to attaining the technological know-how to build a nuclear bomb and the ability to deliver it. The international community has taken important steps to make it clear to Iran that this dangerous development, which directly threatens Israel, moderate Arab states, Europe and the regional strategic balance, will not be tolerated.
Here you’ll find answers to key questions about the current crisis.
What's the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program?
Why is Iran’s nuclear weapons program a problem?
What has the international community done to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program?
Have international sanctions had an impact?
What kind of regime governs Iran?
What's the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program?
Iran is one of the original signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which has been in force since 1970. Although Iran's clandestine nuclear activities stretch back decades, international concern is mounting that its illegal nuclear weapons program, which is believed to be scattered across facilities at several locations around the country, is approaching a "point of no return" – the point at which Iran has the ability to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels.
Iran claims that it is developing a nuclear program for domestic energy use, as it is permitted to do under the NPT, in order to supplement its oil resources. However, reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) say that the agency cannot verify the “peaceful nature” of Iran’s program, and that it found documents that show a possible “military nuclear dimension.”
Experts predict that if Iran continues its development of nuclear weapons at its current rate it may have a usable nuclear bomb, and the ability to deliver it to target, within three to eight years. Some estimates say Iran may have this capability as soon as the end of 2009.
To date, Iran has converted yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas, which is now fueling the centrifuges in its main nuclear facility in Natanz. Experts say that 3,000 working centrifuges spinning nonstop for a year could enrich enough uranium to power an atom bomb. Iran is said to be aiming to have as many as 54,000 workable centrifuges.
On September 2, 2007, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shook the international community when he declared: “…We have taken another step in the nuclear progress and launched more than 3,000 centrifuge machines, installing a new cascade every week.” However, international experts, including officials at the IAEA, question this claim, and say that Iran has less than 2,000 working centrifuges, with another approximately 650 in testing or assembly. Nonetheless, these experts note that while President Ahmadinejad may be exaggerating the number of currently operational centrifuges, it is only a matter of time before Iran does reach 3,000 or more.
Other intelligence reports add to the international alarm over Iran’s intentions. Iran bought documents from Abdul Qadeer Kahn, the founder of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, which provide instructions on developing the core of an atom bomb. Iran also has a heavy-water production facility at Arak, which, it is believed, is being used for the production of plutonium. Russia built a $800 million nuclear power plant at Bushehr (in 2007 Russia refused to fuel the reactor until Iran complied with United Nations resolutions) and helped train 700 Iranian nuclear engineers. Other covert programs include the “Green Salt Project.” As reported by The New York Times, this secret program involves uranium processing, explosives and missile warhead design, and is believed to be linked with Iran’s existing nuclear facilities.
Why is Iran’s nuclear weapons program a problem?
Iran's regime is a source of extremism and destabilization in the region and around the globe. It has defied the international community with its support for terrorism and cultivation of extremist forces. It has thumbed its nose at international efforts to ascertain the extent and purpose of its nuclear program. Its leaders have repeatedly called for Israel’s demise and have propagated base anti-Semitism, including the denial of the Holocaust. There is consensus in the international community that nuclear weapons in the hands of this increasingly radical and reckless regime would lead to a dangerous geo-strategic shift in the Middle East, potentially leading to a nuclear arms race in the region. Such weapons would bolster Iran’s aggressive and destructive foreign policy, and represent a direct and existential threat to Israel and other countries in the region.
What has the international community done to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program?
The international community has long sought a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear weapons program, but efforts have been frustrated by Iranian intransigence and defiance toward the international community.
The so-called EU3 – France, Britain and Germany – undertook efforts to persuade Iran to provide more transparency and accountability for its nuclear program. In the 2004 Paris Agreement, Iran ostensibly agreed to a number of measures to abide by the terms of the NPT, which would permit it to develop a nuclear program for civilian purposes only and to suspend uranium enrichment. The agreement fell apart upon the election of President Ahmadinejad.
In September 2005, the IAEA declared that Iran was in “non-compliance” with the NPT due to its ongoing uranium enrichment activities, and recommended that the issue go to the United Nations Security Council. In July 2006, Russia and China, which had long resisted taking action against Iran, joined the rest of the U.N. Security Council in ordering Iran to halt its development of nuclear weapons or face sanctions.
The U.N. Security Council unanimously voted to impose sanctions on Iran in December 2006. The sanctions, which were passed as Resolution 1737, ban the supply of nuclear-related materials and technology to Iran and freeze the assets of individuals and companies with links to Iran’s nuclear program. The Security Council proceeded to tighten its sanctions on Iran in March 2007 due to Iran’s failure to respond to Resolution 1737. The resulting Resolution 1747 extended the U.N.’s initial set of sanctions, calling for a ban on the import/export of Iranian weapons and extending the freeze on assets that was already in place.
Iran continues to reject these resolutions and the Security Council is considering imposing additional sanctions.
The United States has already imposed tight sanctions on Iran. Diplomatic relations ended and sanctions were first applied following the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979. Additional sanctions were imposed given Iran’s status as a state-sponsor of terrorism and its development of weapons of mass destruction. With U.S. encouragement, many countries and banks, particularly in Europe, are beginning to enact limits on financial transactions with Iran.
Have international sanctions had an impact?
Iran enjoys large revenues from its oil and natural gas reserves and continues to conduct trade worth billions of dollars with Russia, China, India and many other countries. At the same time, the Iranian economy has proved vulnerable. It is suffering from high inflation and a high rate of unemployment. There have been numerous reports of increasing public discontent with the cost of living – despite the government’s spending $60 billion on subsidies. Additionally, many international investors have stayed away from Iran – partly due to U.N. sanctions and partly due to the economic instability in the country.
What kind of regime governs Iran?
Since the revolution which overthrew the monarchy in 1979, Iran has been run by an Islamist regime which has violently suppressed internal dissent. During the 1990s, there were cautious hopes that Iran was embarking on reform, but these were dashed in 2005 when Ahmadinejad became President. Both Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's powerful Supreme Leader, are uncompromising hardliners.
Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, providing financial support and training for organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and others, and is believed to be behind many Shiite insurgents in Iraq. Iran is responsible for the bombings of the Israeli Embassy (1992) and the Jewish community center (1994) in Buenos Aires, Argentina, which killed over 200 people and wounded hundreds more.
President Ahmadinejad has threatened to wipe Israel from the map and denies that the Holocaust happened.
Iran has drawn strong criticism from human rights groups and democratic states for its treatment of women and minorities, its practice of torture and arbitrary arrests, and its denial of basic civil rights, such as freedom of speech and assembly.
