My inaugural ADL speaking engagement last month in Chicago was entitled "Israel Update: The Good, The Bad and The Depressing." Although I did get some unexpected laughs for the black humor, it is hard for Israelis to be positive about much these days amidst the prevailing mood of frustration and uncertainty produced by continued Palestinian violence and terrorist incidents. Nonetheless, despite the general malaise from all the bad news regarding the security situation, there are some developments that have at least some Israelis feeling...well, "not depressed."

Economy

While we still have a long way to go in liberalizing our markets and creating a sustainable economy we did start the new millenium without inflation. That is right, the same welfare state that produced triple digit inflation in the 1980’s, produced its first annual zero rate of inflation at the end of the calendar year 2000. Further, despite the woes of Wall Street, Israel’s high tech sector continues to be the source of a growing export based economy. This is due in part, to Israel’s strength in both technology and science. We are now beginning to closely monitor calls for boycotts from the Arab League and economic sanctions from the European Union to ensure that Israel can continue to compete and even assert its leadership as a value added information hub in the global marketplace.

Domestic Political

In contrast to the recent U.S. presidential elections, Ariel Sharon’s victory was nothing, if not decisive. The nearly twenty-five point spread between Sharon and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak represents the largest head of state election victory margin in modern history by any western democratic leader.

The post-election establishment of a national unity government also marks a new political era. For years, Likudniks and Laborites alike have been seemingly exhausted and frustrated by narrow coalition governments where smaller parties yield disproportionate weight. The national unity government of Sharon, regardless of how long it lasts, is a strong testament for the possible return of centripetal forces to the Israeli political scene. Reflecting on comprehensive public opinion poll data, Chemi Shalev writing in Maariv on May 11^th concludes: "The political unity is getting nearly blanket support, and the uniformity of thinking widens daily. A public that used to be split nearly half and half on everything, is now clinging to a nearly totalitarian common denominator in rates of 70-80% and even higher. The majority may be silent, but also the minority has gone silent."

Arab Minority-Civil Rights

Israeli Arab issues seem to be getting more attention in the media and the government has already created a precedent with the appointment of the first Druze Minister in any Israeli government — Salah Tarif. Likud MK Moshe Arens in a revealing editorial to Haaretz, proclaimed that Israeli Jews must recognize the legitimate concerns of the Israeli-Arab minority and correct for prior disinterest..

Further, there has been significant public exposure to the concerns of minority Arab communities in Israel following the public deliberations of the Or Commission, appointed by the Barak Administration to investigate the circumstances of the October 2000 riots within Israel. In these disturbances, protests by Israeli Arabs of the Galilee spilled into the streets of neighboring Jewish towns and resulted in unprecedented violence (if you say domestic violence it sounds like wife battering) and police retaliation inside the Green line resulting in the deaths of six Israeli Arabs.

While much healing remains to take place in this community, the independent judicial commission inquiry headed by an Israeli Supreme Court Justice and including an Israeli Arab jurist is a testament to Israel’s democratic traditions and instincts. While it is premature to speculate on the findings, it is clear that the commission has already withstood populist intimidation from Jewish and Arab interests and is pursuing its work expediently.

Perhaps the best indicator that there has been some progress on this issue is what did not happen during this year’s "Land Day" celebration by local Arab communities in April. In contrast to October 2001, this April, Israeli police and leaders coordinated their efforts in advance to ensure the right of Arab citizens to peacefully demonstrate. For example, practical and wise decisions to move the protest site in the town of Saknin from the border with local Jewish towns in the Misgav region of the Galilee — where two Israeli Arabs were killed in October — to the border with the Arab town of Arabe, resulted in a much different result. In addition, Al-Nakhba ("the Catastrophe") demonstrations by Israeli Arabs in May 2001 were largely peaceful and lawful. Although it is difficult for many Israelis to hear Arab citizens express unpopular nationalistic views — including solidarity with the Palestinians — such views and expressions are not illegal in Israel.

International Envoys

While the Attorney General, Yossi Sarid, the local press (and possibly self-ousted Prime Minister Office Director General Rafi Peled) may not like the Prime Minister utilizing his son Omri Sharon as an unofficial diplomat, it is interesting to note that the Head of State is utilizing private and direct channels when exploring contacts with the Palestinians and others in the Arab world. Additionally, Sharon has already selectively called upon an array of seasoned diplomats to represent him on specific matters, including former Ambassadors Zalman Shoval, Dore Gold and Moshe Arens, not to mention a Foreign Ministry team headed by Shimon Peres and Michael Melchior.

PM Sharon could not have found a better foil than Peres to present his case to the UN, the EU or the State Department for that matter? Clearly, not all marriages of convenience are destined for silver anniversaries, but at a minimum this was an impressive political move for Sharon.

Mood

While there is no scientific barometer to gauge the mood of the country, understandably, most Israelis continue to be pensive and concerned regarding the immediate security situation. Daily press reports from local and regional sources document continued violence and threats aimed at Jews, while most foreign reports include biting criticism aimed at Israel by foreign governments, the UN and often the reporters themselves. Finally, little comfort can be taken from the recent Israel National Security Council assessment that the current conflict could continue for another three years. Yet, it is also clear that many Israelis have drawn a line in the sand. The overwhelming majority view the Oslo process as over and are now prepared to accept that the current government has a mandate to first address security issues as part of, or independent from, any future relations and negotiations with the Palestinians.

Nonetheless, results from answers to three representative questions in the Maariv public opinion poll cited above reveal some flexibility, if not lack of uniformity on how best to overcome the current cycle of violence:

• Do you believe the IDF employs more force against the Palestinians than necessary, less force, or exactly the right amount?
  More than necessary- 19%; less than necessary- 39%; exactly right- 38%; don’t know- 4%.

• According to the way things appear to you, is it possible to achieve quiet in the territories by military means alone, or do military means have to be combined with diplomacy?
  Military Means-22%; combined diplomatic-71%; don’t know- 7%.

• Do you support or oppose the proposal that Israel freeze construction in the settlements in exchange for a cease fire with the Palestinians?
  Support- 55%; oppose-39%; don’t know- 6%.

Perhaps one sign that the body politic is healthy, if not happy, is the recognition that we are in a difficult period and that there is evidence of a collective resolve not to be drawn into a national state of depression. Some analysts have even suggested that the national pride and euphoria over the Maccabi Tel Aviv Basketball Championship in Paris, France may evidence some displaced emotional releases from our otherwise frustrating regional and local situation.

To be sure, the coming weeks and months are likely to provide a roller coaster of challenges to Israel, Israelis and her supporters. We look forward to sharing with you our analysis and insight of these developments from an Israeli perspective—the good, the bad and even the depressing.