| "When we line up what we know and what we can best-guess, it looks like Iran is 80 percent of the way to a functioning nuclear weapon." – David Kay, former UN weapons inspector, September 8, 2008. |
The IAEA has confirmed 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium at Iran's nuclear facility in Natanz, and Iran has claimed that 4,000 centrifuges are installed. To date, Iran has converted yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas and through the centrifuges into low enriched uranium (LEU) of approximately 4% U-235. Experts say that 3,000 working centrifuges, spinning non-stop for a year could produce enough weapons-grade, highly enriched uranium (about 90% U-235) for one nuclear bomb.Iran is said to be aiming to have as many as 54,000 workable centrifuges. According to the IAEA, Iran has also been testing more efficient centrifuges of an advanced design.
The IAEA has confirmed that Iran has already produced 480 kilograms of LEU, as of August 30, 2008. Some experts estimate that Iran might need as little as 700-800 kilograms of LEU to produce 20-25 kilograms of weapon-grade, highly-enriched uranium (HEU), enough for one nuclear weapon. Others estimate that Iran would need 1,000-1,700 kilograms of LEU to have high confidence that they could produce 25-30 kilograms of HEU. As a result, Iran could have enough LEU to eventually enrich to HEU in six months to two years. Enrichment to HEU could require another two to three months.
Iran also has a heavy water production facility at Arak, which some say could be used to produce plutonium. Plutonium-based warheads are an alternative to uranium-based nuclear weapons.
Timeline estimates for Iran to be able to build a nuclear bomb and deliver it to target range from 18 months to eight years.
Why is Iran's nuclear weapons program a threat?
Iran's regime is a source of extremism and destabilization in the region and around the globe. It has defied the international community with its support for terrorism and cultivation of extremist forces. It has rebuffed international efforts to ascertain the extent and purpose of its nuclear program. Its leaders have repeatedly called for Israel's demise and have propagated base anti-Semitism, including the denial of the Holocaust.
There is consensus in the international community that nuclear weapons in the hands of this radical and reckless regime would lead to a dangerous geo-strategic shift in the Middle East, potentially creating a nuclear arms race in the region, would bolster Iran's aggressive and destructive foreign policy, and would represent an existential threat to Israel and a serious threat to the United States, Europe, and countries in the region.
What has the international community done to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program?
The international community has long sought a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear weapons program. Those efforts have been frustrated by Iranian intransigence and defiance toward the international community.
Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits the development of nuclear weapons. Iran's covert nuclear program was exposed in August 2002. Subsequently, the so-called EU3 – France, Britain and Germany – undertook efforts to persuade Iran to provide more transparency and accountability for its nuclear program. In late 2003, Iran ostensibly agreed to the Additional Protocol of the NPT, which would allow greater scrutiny. The agreement fell apart upon the election of President Ahmadinejad.
In September 2005, the IAEA declared that Iran was in "non-compliance" with the NPT due to its ongoing uranium enrichment activities, and recommended that the issue go to the United Nations Security Council. In July 2006, Russia and China, who had long resisted taking action against Iran, joined the rest of the U.N. Security Council in support of Resolution 1696 that ordered Iran to halt all activities related to uranium reprocessing and enrichment and activities related to "heavy water" reactors that produce plutonium, or face sanctions.
Iran refused to comply and in December 2006 the U.N. Security Council unanimously voted to impose sanctions on Iran. The sanctions, which were passed as Resolution 1737, banned the supply of nuclear-related materials and technology to Iran and froze the assets of individuals and companies with links to Iran's nuclear program. The Security Council proceeded to tighten its sanctions on Iran in March 2007 due to Iran's failure to respond to Resolution 1737. The resulting Resolution 1747, extended the U.N.'s initial set of sanctions, calling for a ban on the import/export of Iranian weapons and extending the freeze on assets that was already in place. A third sanctions resolution, 1803, was passed in March 2008. That resolution named certain Iranian banks and shipping companies as entities whose activities required vigilance due to suspicions that they were involved in proliferation. Iran continues to reject these resolutions and Security Council members are considering additional sanctions.
The United States already has comprehensive sanctions on Iran. Diplomatic relations ended and economic sanctions were first applied following the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979. Additional sanctions were imposed for Iran's sponsoring of terrorism and its development of weapons of mass destruction. With U.S. encouragement, many countries, banks, and corporations, particularly in Europe, are beginning to limit economic relationships and financial transactions with Iran.
Have sanctions had an impact?
To date, sanctions have not touched the Iranian regime's main source of income: oil exports. Several Western energy companies, though, have voluntarily limited their involvement in Iran. Iran's international trade has been effected by sanctions against Iranian banks, causing the cost of doing business to rise. Current sanctions have not achieved the goal of causing Iran to end its nuclear weapons program and meet its international obligations.
What kind of regime governs Iran?
Since the revolution which overthrew the monarchy in 1979, Iran has been run by a Shia Islamist regime which has violently suppressed internal dissent. During the 1990s, there were cautious hopes that Iran was embarking on reform, but these were dashed in 2005 when Ahmadinejad became President. Both Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's powerful Supreme Leader, are uncompromising hardliners.
Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, providing financial support and training for organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and others, and is believed to be behind many Shiite insurgents in Iraq. Iran is responsible for the bombings of the Israeli Embassy (1992) and the Jewish community center (1994) in Buenos Aires, Argentina, which killed over 200 people and wounded hundreds more.
President Ahmadinejad has threatened to wipe Israel from the map and denies that the Holocaust happened.
Iran has drawn strong criticism from human rights groups and democratic states for its treatment of women and minorities, its practice of torture and arbitrary arrests, and its denial of basic civil rights, such as freedom of speech and assembly.
