The Iranian Nuclear Threat: Why it Matters Posted: June 17, 2010

 Updated: May 16, 2012

Nuclear weapons in the hands of the Iranian regime will have severe repercussions for American security and the security of our allies. 

• A nuclear-armed Iran would embolden Iran's aggressive foreign policy, resulting in greater confrontations with the international community. Iran already has a conventional weapons capability to hit U.S. and allied troops stationed in the Middle East and parts of Europe. If Tehran were allowed to develop nuclear weapons, this threat would increase dramatically.
  
  
• The Middle East remains an essential source of energy for the United States and the world. Iran's military posture has led to increases in arms purchases by its neighbors. A nuclear-armed Iran would likely spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that would further destabilize this volatile and vital region. Interrupted access to essential energy supplies could threaten the viability of the American and world economies.
  
  
• Iran is one of the world's leading state sponsors of terrorism through its financial and operational support for groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and others. Iran could potentially share its nuclear technology and know-how with extremist groups hostile to the United States and the West.
   
  
• While Iranian missiles can't yet reach America, Iran having a nuclear weapons capability can potentially directly threaten the United States and its inhabitants. The U.S. Department of Defense National Air and Space Intelligence Center reported in April 2009: "With sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could develop and test an ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] capable of reaching the United States by 2015. Many analysts are also concerned about the possibility of a nuclear weapon arriving in a cargo container at a major US port. Furthermore, a federally mandated commission to study electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks noted the vast damage that could be wrought by a single missile with a nuclear warhead, launched from a ship off the US coast, and detonated a couple of hundred miles in the air, high above America.
  
  
• A nuclear-armed Iran poses a threat to America's closest allies in the Middle East. Israel is most at risk as Iran's leaders have repeatedly declared that Israel should "be wiped from the map." America's moderate Arab allies, such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and others are already alarmed at Iran's aggressive regional policy and would feel increasingly threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran.  

How do we know Iran is developing nuclear weapons? 
Iran's nuclear program is clearly intended to develop a nuclear weapons capability. For eighteen years, it was kept secret, even though international assistance would have been available to a civilian program. In 2002, Iran's covert program was exposed. Since then, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly said that it cannot consider Iran's nuclear program as entirely civilian. On November 8, 2011 it released a report stating there is "credible" evidence that "Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device."

Western intelligence agencies discovered, and Iran admitted to, another secret facility in Qom that is designed for approximately 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium. President Obama commented that the "configuration" of the Qom facility is "not consistent with a peaceful nuclear program." Three thousand centrifuges are sufficient for producing quantities of highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons, but not for fuel for nuclear power plants. Iran has announced that it has begun moving centrifuges into the Qom facility, which is even deeper underground than the enrichment facility at Natanz. Additionally, it is suspected that the Parchin military base, located 20 miles from Tehran, serves as a major research and testing facility for the weapons component of the Iranian nuclear program. Parchin has a number of fortified tunnels and bunkers which, according to the IAEA report, Iran has used to conduct simulated explosion experiments, possibly in association with nuclear materials. IAEA requests to inspect the Parchin base have been refused.

What does the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) say?

On November 8, 2011, the IAEA released their most comprehensive and damning report to date on Iran's nuclear program. The report is based on intelligence received from more than 10 different countries, interviews with foreign scientists who helped Iran develop their program, and the IAEA's own investigations and analyses.

In unambiguous terms, the report states that Iran is engaged in "activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device." These activities include:

• Research on uranium cores and detonators for nuclear weapons

• Acquiring nuclear weapons development information and documentation from a clandestine supply network
  
  
• Developing an indigenous nuclear weapons design and testing of the components

• Computer modeling of nuclear explosions and logistics for nuclear testing

• Engineering studies to adapt missiles for nuclear warheads

The IAEA's February 2012 report noted that Iran's stockpile of 20% enriched uranium increased by almost half, significantly shortening the time needed to further enrich the uranium to weapons-grade material, and that Iran had begun production of 20% enriched uranium at the deep underground, heavily defended Fordow installation. Iran currently has enough low-enriched (3%) and medium-enriched (20%) uranium to produce weapons-grade uranium for at least four nuclear bombs using the same enrichment technology.

Didn't the CIA report that Iran had stopped developing nuclear weapons?
 
U.S. officials have been quoted as confirming that the 2010 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran makes clear that Iran has never stopped its nuclear weapons development program. This NIE has not been made public.

The November 2007 NIE was widely misinterpreted as claiming that Iran ended its nuclear weapons program, when in fact it had confirmed the existence of a covert Iranian program to develop nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them. Only one element Ð nuclear warhead design Ð was estimated to have been put on hold in 2003. As then CIA director Michael Hayden has said of the 2007 NIE, "What came out in a lot of coverage was 'Iran stops nuclear program.' The only thing we claimed had been halted in '03 was the weaponization. The development of fissile material and the development of delivery systems continued. And one can make the case the development of delivery systems makes no sense with just conventional warheads on top of them."

How is the international community dealing with the Iranian nuclear program?

For several years, the United States, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom (the "P5+1") have offered to negotiate with Iran and at the same time have been incrementally increasing pressure on Iran through sanctions. Iran has met with P5+1 negotiators on several occasions in past years, but the Iranians have never engaged in serious discussions.

The United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted four resolutions imposing sanctions on Iran for its nuclear proliferation activities.

The U.S. has had sanctions in place for many years against companies that invest in Iran's energy sector. Recently, more stringent U.S. sanctions include the Kirk-Menendez Amendment of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2012, which places sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran and foreign institutions doing business with the Central Bank of Iran and the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act (CISADA) of 2010, which sanctions companies that provide refined petroleum or energy-sector technology to Iran. The U.S. Treasury has also "blacklisted" Iranian companies involved in proliferation or terrorism to make banking transactions more difficult for them globally.

On January 23, 2012, the European Union banned new purchase contracts for Iranian oil and all imports of Iranian oil after July 1, 2012. Previous sanctions from October 2010 had prevented EU-based companies from investing in Iran's energy sector or providing energy-sector technology to Iran. Major European leaders have also expressed support for additional European Union sanctions on Iran should Iran continue to demonstrate recalcitrance in meetings to discuss its nuclear program.

Though no claims of responsibility have been made, there have been reports that a highly sophisticated, covert cyber-attack was carried out against Iran's nuclear program, using what has become known as the Stuxnet worm to target the control systems of Iran's centrifuges. A more recent report claims that a new cyber-virus, Duqu, has targeted Iran's defense network.

What kind of regime governs Iran? 

Since the revolution which overthrew the monarchy in 1979, Iran has been run by a Shia Islamist regime which has violently suppressed internal dissent. Both Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's powerful Supreme Leader, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are uncompromising hardliners.

There have been periods when it appeared that the Iranian leadership was opting for greater moderation and reform. This occurred with the election of Mohamed Khatami, considered the "reformist candidate" to the presidency in 1997. While the Khatami reign (through 2005) was marked by some moderation in Iran's public stance towards the West, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei tightly controlled most of the state apparatus. Iran's nuclear weapons program also intensified during this period.

Violent repression: The Iran regime violently represses public manifestations of political opposition. In February 2011, regime security forces quashed demonstrations organized by opposition forces to express solidarity with political uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. Following the dubious outcome of presidential elections in June 2009, the regime's security forces and allied militia harshly clamped down on pro-opposition protests in Tehran and elsewhere across the country. A number of people protesting the election results were killed Ð some killed at rallies by gunfire, and some in prisons following their arrest.

Terrorism and extremism: Iran's regime is a source of extremism and destabilization in the region and around the globe. Iran is generally considered to be the leading state sponsor of terrorism, providing financial support and training for organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and others, and is believed to be behind many Shiite insurgents in Iraq. Iran is responsible for the bombings of the Israeli Embassy (1992) and the Jewish community center (1994) in Buenos Aires, Argentina, which killed over 200 people and wounded hundreds more. Its leaders have repeatedly called for Israel's demise and have propagated base anti-Semitism, including the denial of the Holocaust.

Human rights violations: The Iranian regime denies basic freedoms to Iran's citizens, including freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of religion, and freedom of the press. The rights of women, workers, homosexuals, juveniles, religious and ethnic minorities, and political opposition are brutally suppressed. The United States and Sweden have proposed that the UN Human Rights Council appoint a Special Rapporteur to investigate and report on human rights violations in Iran.
 

Resources for More Information on Iran

Background Material
The Iranian Nuclear Threat: Why it Matters
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in his Own Words
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps


Press Releases
ADL: U.N. Agency 'Incapable Of Acting Responsibly' On Iranian Nuclear Threat
ADL Calls On U.S., France, Germany And U.K. To 'Deliver On Promise' For Tough Iran Sanctions
ADL Praises President Obama for Preventing Iranian Sponsored Terror Attack; Insists that Iran Must Not Be Granted Nuclear Weapons Capabilities


Op-eds
Iran Sanctions Should Target Oil Exports
Europe's Contradictions on Iran Sanctions
Iran and Egypt: The Story of Two Uprisings
Iran Is Not a Good Partner For Latin America