Understanding Targeted Violence: Risk Factors and Warning Signs

Acts of targeted and mass violence are often preceded by warning signs and risk factors that suggest a person may be thinking about committing a violent act. Professionals trained to spot and evaluate these warnings rely on best practices from the field of Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM). Research by U.S. government agencies has found that prior perpetrators of targeted violence displayed several types of specific behaviors before carrying out their attacks. Experts in this field have used these research findings to identify behavioral patterns that may indicate an elevated risk of violence.

• Individuals considering acts of violence may be consumed by real or perceived personal grievances, injustices, and feelings of humiliation or victimization. They may also view their problems as unsolvable, insisting that violence is their only solution.
• Individuals considering acts of targeted violence often inappropriately fixate on, or identify with, mass killers, attacks, or extremist ideologies. They might obsessively research violent crimes or extremist groups, talk about violent or homicidal fantasies, claim to understand or relate to mass killers, or suddenly change their appearance, sometimes to look like an attacker they admire.
• When an individual is considering or planning to commit an act of violence, they often research and prepare. Signs of this planning can include recently buying weapons, practicing the attack, visiting or scouting the target location, and taking steps to explain their motives or leave behind a "legacy," such as writing a manifesto.
• Sudden changes in behavior also raise concerns, such as aggressive or criminal behavior, reckless spending, or risky sexual behavior. A sharp increase or sudden stop in troubling behaviors or online posts can also be a red flag.
• The individual may hint at, unintentionally reveal, or directly share their plans. They may also speak in a way that suggests they expect to die.
• Individuals may also experience a deterioration in physical health, mental wellbeing, or emotional stability. Warning signs can include past suicidal thoughts or attempts, angry outbursts, substance abuse, hospitalization for harming themselves or others, or refusal to follow through with counseling. Poor coping skills or a lack of empathy for others can also be warning signs.
• Individuals may experience a decline in their social support and community, financial stability, or job satisfaction or security prior to an act of violence. They may experience offline isolation and/or a growing dependence on harmful digital communities. The person of concern may also have a history of violence, defying authority, or breaking rules and boundaries.
• Warning signs tend to develop over time, but a specific event, called a "trigger," can push someone toward action more quickly. Triggers might include losing a job or the death of a loved one.

No single factor, including mental health struggles, can predict whether someone will commit an act of violence. Trained threat assessment professionals conduct thorough, well-rounded evaluations of individuals who show multiple warning signs repeatedly over time.

Additional resources for BTAM guidelines on warning signs include:

• Risk Assessment Guideline Elements for Violence (RAGE-V): An Association of Threat Assessment Professionals (ATAP) guide to assist BTAM professionals with evaluating potential risks of future targeted violence.
• Making Prevention a Reality: An FBI guide that lays out practical ways to recognize, assess, and manage threats of targeted violence, helping schools, workplaces, law enforcement, and others spot warning signs early and use a BTAM approach to prevent attacks before they happen.
• Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol-18 (TRAP-18): A structured professional judgment tool used by threat assessment professionals to help determine whether an individual may be moving toward committing an act of ideologically motivated violence.